Market Update - January 29th, 2024
Good morning, team! This last week of January is a BIG one in terms of potential market movers. We could be in for a pretty eventful 5 days ahead. Stick with us on our socials to follow along in real-time as the news breaks throughout the week. Let’s go 💪
We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!
Read time: ~5 minutes
Monster News Week Ahead 😅
Let’s briefly review the economic data releasing this week.
Tuesday - Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Wednesday - ADP Jobs Report + the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
Friday - Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report
Approximately 20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, too
Key Takeaway : Pass the popcorn, please 🍿 It’s going to be a fun one watching this unfold. The market expects the Fed to hold interest rates at the meeting on Wednesday. A surprise hike/cut would send markets into a tizzy. The jobs reports are all expected to report somewhere between +135-175k in jobs in January. Can the US economy continue to show resilience?
Just How Healthy is the Job Market? 🧟
The US economy has added jobs EVERY month since January 2021. All leading indicators point to a soft landing from the Federal Reserve without any major recession. But there are some noticeable changes happening across the landscape of the job market that we aren’t hearing much about.
Over the last 3 months, the following companies have announced lay-offs (per The Kobeissi Letter):
Twitch: 35% of workforce
Hasbro: 20% of workforce
Spotify: 17% of workforce
Levi's: 15% of workforce
Zerox: 15% of workforce
Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
Wayfair: 13% of workforce
Duolingo: 10% of workforce
Washington Post: 10% of workforce
eBay: 9% of workforce
Business Insider: 8% of workforce
Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
Blackrock: 3% of workforce
Citigroup: 20,000 employees
Pixar: 1,300 employees
What’s notable about this list is that it contains companies across industries, not just tech.
Additionally, Joe Consorti pointed out the US has a record 8.6 million people holding 2 or more jobs. That’s well above 2008 levels during the financial crisis.
Key Takeaway : Is the labor market on the brink of a meaningful pull-back? Broad industries are being affected by lay-offs, not just tech. US citizens are holding 2 or more jobs to make ends meet. We called out a few weeks ago that 10 of the last 11 jobs reports have revised numbers down after initially announcing much higher figures. This all makes you wonder just how resilient the market truly is.
Plan to Eliminate Ohio Income Tax
Last week, Republican lawmakers released plans for legislation that, if passed, would eliminate Ohio’s income tax by 2030 which many believe will attract businesses and individuals to move to the state.
There are a handful of states that don’t have an income tax like Texas, Florida and Tennessee. Those states have something else in common : higher property taxes, higher sales tax and milder climates. I’m definitely interested in one of those ☀ but not the others 🙁.
Key Takeaway : It’s hard to predict the impact of such a move. If it’s truly just a reduction in taxes, I’m sure everybody is on board. Enticing more businesses to move to the state adds jobs and those that fill those jobs will be happy to know their cost of living is a bit lower. But at what cost? Will public benefits like roads and schools suffer as a result or will other taxes increase?
Rise & Thrive is in the Books
I think Kreg and I are still recovering from Rise & Thrive 2024 😅😅 We are so grateful for the reception this city showed. It won’t be the last. We’re already thinking about how to make it bigger and better in 2025!
The photos from the event are LIVE! Be sure to check them out 📸