Mortgage Update - June 9th, 2025
Summer break is officially here! Anyone else caught in the chaos of a never-ending travel sports schedule? Seriously—when did youth sports start mimicking a minor league team's travel itinerary? I’m currently typing this from the passenger seat while my wife drives us to Dayton… for the third time this week. Please tell me I’m not alone in this!
It was an absolutely crazy week in the economic and mortgage world, which made this newsletter a fun one to write! Let’s dive into the latest and greatest!!
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Read time: ~4 minutes
Elon vs. Trump: The Gloves Are Off!
I came across these numbers over the weekend and I was completely blown away:
A million seconds ago today was May 28th
A billion seconds ago was October 1993
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.
Now consider this: The U.S. national debt just crossed $37 trillion—and it’s climbing by $1 trillion every 100 days. 🤯
These numbers are nearly impossible to comprehend. But what’s clear is this: our fiscal path is clearly unsustainable. The debt is growing faster than the economy, and if that doesn’t concern you, it should. We’re not just borrowing money—we’re borrowing from our children and grandchildren.
This harsh reality is exactly what prompted Elon's tweet on Tuesday, lighting the fuse to the back-and-forth pissing match between him and Trump:
Look, politics aside—he's not wrong. A country isn’t much different than a household: spend more than you bring in, and eventually, you go broke. Solving this isn’t optional—it’s essential.
This should be a wake-up call! Get your financial house in order. The mounting debt will have real consequences. The chaos is coming either way—the difference will be whether you’re prepared to navigate it… or caught off guard by it.
Key Takeaway: The U.S. is adding debt at an unsustainable pace—and the math doesn’t lie. This can’t continue forever. Now is the time to get serious about long-term solutions and position yourself accordingly.
Houston, We Have a Problem—How Should 🫵 Prepare?
You’ve heard me say it before—Nick and I are straight up nerds. The kind of guys who spend way too much time breaking down economic data and bingeing on dorky finance podcasts. But if the last five years have taught us anything, it's this: you can’t just observe the world around you—you have to respond to it.
Look, we're all tied to real estate in one way or another. While many view the current market as a challenge (or even a curse), Nick and I see it differently: we see opportunity.
We don’t usually talk about our personal wins or how we’re navigating the market, because frankly, we’re just two regular guys trying to provide value to others. But (probably to Nick’s dismay), here’s a quick peek behind the curtain: over the last 12 months, we’ve personally transacted over $2 million in real estate.
Why??
While others are sitting on the sidelines—nervous about “high interest rates” and “overvalued home prices”—we’ve chosen to push past the fear, say F to our feelings, and build.
We’re doing this because we see where things are heading. The government will keep printing money. It's the only inevitable path from here. Inflation isn’t going anywhere. And in that environment, you want to be holding assets—especially ones that perform well when those dollars in your pocket weaken.
This message isn't about fear - it's about opportunity. This is your chance to reframe the conversation. Educate your clients. Help them zoom out to see the bigger picture. Show them why this imperfect moment might actually be the smartest time to get in. Fear holds people back, but I promise you, perspective will push them forward!
Key Takeaway: In this high-inflation environment, real estate continues to be one of the most dependable tools for building and preserving wealth. With the government's money printer showing no signs of slowing down, now is the time to lean in—educate, take action, and guide others to do the same!
Job's Report Takes Center Stage
Man, we were actually having a pretty solid week in the mortgage world. Rates were trending down, Nick & I were feeling good, and we even treated ourselves to some mid-week margaritas at Taco Central. But then came May’s Jobs Report on Friday—and just like that, all the rate improvements we saw earlier in the week vanished.
The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, beating economists’ expectations of 125,000.
On the surface, that’s great news. Strong job growth signals a resilient economy. The stock market surged, and Trump wasted no time celebrating—urging “Too Late” Powell to cut interest rates.
But will this report actually push the Fed to cut? In our view, probably not—and the bond market agrees. Mortgage rates spiked almost immediately after the data hit.
🧠Think about it: Why would the Fed feel pressure to cut when job growth seemingly looks strong? Rate cuts are typically a response to economic weakness—especially rising unemployment. While there was a downward revision of 95,000 jobs from previous months, the labor market still isn’t weakening enough to trigger a large rate cut from the Fed. As much as Trump thinks we need lower rates, don't be surprised to see the Fed remain in a wait-and-see mode.
Key Takeaway: Despite growing calls for rate cuts, May’s stronger-than-expected jobs report reinforces the Fed’s stance to hold steady. Until there’s clear weakness in the labor market, expect higher-for-longer to stick around.